Designing The Professional Development Model of School principals at 2025 Horizon with Futuristic Approach

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Ph.D. Graduate in Educational Administration, Department of Educational Sciences, Faculty of Humanities and Education Sciences, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran.

2 Associate Professor, Department of Educational Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz Branch, Tabriz, Iran.

3 Assistant Professor of Educational Administration, Faculty of Humanities and Educational Sciences, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran.

Abstract

Background and Objective: The aim of this study was to design an appropriate model for the professional development of primary school principals in the horizon of 2025 in the northwestern provinces of the Iran.
research methodology: This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of nature, is based on the new methods of futures scientific, analytical and exploratory methods that have been done using a combination of qualitative and quantitative models and in the form of documentary and survey methods and In four stages including coding the data using grounded theory, determining key indicators through Delphi method and panel of experts and identifying key drivers using Mic Mac software based on cross- impact analysis method and providing optimal scenarios using scenario Wizard  software. The statistical population includes professors, experts and specialists in the field of educational management in the northwestern provinces of the country. The sampling method was purposeful and snowball continued until the researcher reached a theoretical saturation using semi-structured interviews with 12 members of the sample.
Findings: Finally, the results of using the cross-impact analysis method indicated that 15 key factors among the 52 factors identified in the interview stage, have the greatest impact on the future of professional development of Principals. In the following, these factors have been used as basic factors in Scenario Planning. In order to Scenario Writing at this stage, expert experts have been consulted and by summarizing them and preparing a portfolio of scenarios for these factors, 45 possible situations for 15 factors have been defined.
Conclusion: by analyzing the results of the scenario wizard, 11 strong scenarios for the professional development of school administrators in the horizon of 2025 were identified and 4 families of desirable scenarios were determined. These scenarios were named "Princes' School", "Walt's School Kids", "Mice School" and "4-Year-Old Class Observer".

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Applied Educational Leadership
Volume 6, Issue 4
December 2026

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History

  • Receive Date: 11 August 2024
  • Revise Date: 10 November 2024
  • Accept Date: 15 November 2024

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